The "weakest" criminal case against Trump may now be the most important

Here's a primer on the Manhattan D.A.'s "hush money" prosecution, which gets a new trial date on Monday

Today, Monday, March 24, is a big legal day for Donald J. Trump. Today is the day that he either has to come up with a $454 million bond in the civil fraud case brought—and won—by New York Attorney General Letitia James. In the criminal case brought by Manhattan D.A. Alvin Bragg for alleged falsification of business records (in connection with the “hush money” payment to Stormy Daniels in the days leading up to the 2016 presidential election), the judge will decide on a new trial date. Trial was originally set for March 25, but was postponed after the Justice Department produced around 100,000 documents to Trump’s legal team; both sides need time to review them.

I discussed both matters on the NPR podcast, Trump Trials, with Scott Detrow and Domenico Montenaro.

Although generally considered the weakest of the four criminal cases against Trump, the Manhattan one is increasingly important. The Supreme Court’s agreement to hear Trump’s breathtaking claim of presidential immunity in the January 6th prosecution brought by Special Counsel Jack Smith (oral argument is April 25) vastly decreases the chances of that case reaching a verdict before November 4. In the Florida classified documents case, which was also brought by Smith, the judge raised eyebrows last week by signaling to Trump that she might be open to throwing out the Espionage Act counts during trial, which would be a final decision under the Double Jeopardy Clause of the Constitution. And the racketeering case brought by Georgia D.A. Fani Willis was never going to trial before the election.

Which leaves the Manhattan criminal case as the most realistic one to produce a jury verdict before voters head to the polls—a majority of whom reportedly won’t vote for Trump if he has a felony conviction.

Although factually and legally complex, therefore, the Manhattan case is worth taking the time to understand because the stakes in this election are so high.

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Bragg’s theory is that Trump committed a crime (falsification of business records) to cover up other crimes (including violating federal campaign finance laws).